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Clean Energy · Quick Answer

How do you calculate solar payback?

Solar payback = (system cost − incentives) / annual electricity savings. For a $20,000 system with a $6,000 tax credit saving $1,800/year, payback = $14,000 / $1,800 = 7.8 years.

The formula

Payback years = (System Cost − Tax Credits − Rebates) / Annual Savings

Example: 8 kW rooftop system

  • Gross cost: $20,000
  • 30% federal ITC: −$6,000
  • State rebate: −$500
  • Net cost: $13,500
  • Annual generation: ~11,000 kWh
  • Electricity rate: $0.16/kWh
  • Annual savings: 11,000 × $0.16 = $1,760
  • Payback: 13,500 / 1,760 = 7.7 years

What affects payback

Shortens payback

  • High local electricity rates (CA, MA, NY, HI)
  • Net metering at full retail rate
  • Strong solar resource (AZ, CA, TX sun belt)
  • Federal ITC at 30%
  • Time-of-use plans that align with solar generation

Lengthens payback

  • Low electricity rates (Pacific Northwest, Appalachia)
  • Poor orientation or shading
  • Net billing at wholesale rate (CA NEM 3.0)
  • Financing with high interest (loan interest eats into savings)

Total lifetime savings

A panel system typically lasts 25+ years with 0.5% annual degradation. After payback, years 8-25 are effectively free electricity. Lifetime savings typically range from $20,000-$60,000 on residential systems, depending on utility rates.

Cash vs. loan vs. lease

  • Cash: best ROI; shortest payback
  • Solar loan: you own the system and get the tax credit; payback extends 2-4 years
  • Lease / PPA: no upfront cost but you don't own the system or get the tax credit; savings are modest (10-20% of the bill)

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